Showing posts with label Alfred Ferol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alfred Ferol. Show all posts

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Bag Count - An interview with Alfred Ferol


Alfred Ferol called me, he said this is the first time in a long time nothing is going on.   What do you mean Alfred?   Well, have I heard anything from The Money Madam?  Why not? 

You are right Alfred; I am starving for ideas and have not written much lately.  I have only four call expirations this Friday.  Who can live on only four call expirations? 

Well Madam I see many cross currents in buying and selling today.  Buying and selling stocks of course, buying and selling 737 Max, buying and selling dresses and pants, buying and selling options. 

Cross currents?  The other day I saw high bag counts and indeed that is supported by the data.  (Bag counts are the number of packages shoppers carry after buying.)  Consumers are spending money.  Everywhere we go, there are construction projects.  Interest rates are consumer friendly and so is inflation. 

Is there anything negative?  Negatives?   Politics; the people we pay after we elect them are a big negative. Savings income from low interest rates is a big negative.  The unknown, unknowns are always of concern. 

Positives such as the high bag count are critical.  The most significant part of American business is a high bag count.  I would weight bag count as having a 66.5% level of significance because the consumer is 66.5% of the economy.   Everywhere we go there is a high bag count because for the last 10 years consumers didn’t have jobs.  They didn’t spend money.  Now they have jobs.  Now incomes on the entire spectrum of jobs are increasing and this leads to spending.  Is there anything Americans love to do more than to spend money? 

Will the bag count continue?  Data again are on our side.  Consumers are both spending and saving more. So, what do you suggest?  Follow unemployment trends, follow consumer trends, these are opportunities.  Of course, follow The MoneyMadam.  When these data points change, you will adjust. 

Thanks Alfred, I always enjoy your input.

M* MoneyMadam
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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Invest for Income - Ignore the price of stuff around you - guildelines

I ran into Alfred Ferol playing golf in Palm Beach, though not at Mar-a-Lago*.   He said to me, "did you notice all the real estate for sale?  A property I think should be priced at $1.5 million is now $15 million. "  Yet here I live, quite well, on the income I create without owning a palace in Palm Beach.

The point Alfred was making, is to not measure investments by their price but by the income.  All retired people who live off the income from their investments have to focus on income.

Income is expensive these days.  


When I got to know Alfred, he bought a Certificate of Deposit (CD) earning 18% for 2 years.   Let's put this in perspective: $10,000 @ 18% provides $1,800 simple interest.  Today, you would have to invest $75,000 in a two year CD to get the same $1,800 simple interest income.  Two year CD's pay only 2.4 - 2.5%.   Does that nail the point that income is expensive.

Trade issues are affecting income.


Investors here and abroad are nervous about trade issues and international affairs in general.  The U.S. is the safe haven.  The nervous Nellies are all buying our U.S. backed fixed income which renders it very expensive and low yielding.



 

Alfred re-assured me to not be nervous about trade issues.  Trade is not a problem, it is an opportunity.  Industrial production is much more facile and mobile than in the past.  Capitalism has invaded many continents and the human predilection to do what we have to to eat has provided a very large labor pool.  Today, moving production from China to Vietnam for instance is easier than in the past. 



He admits the trade issues affect stock prices which is why he sees opportunity.  But, you have to find stocks with good fundamentals that are cheap.  Find a stock that is cheap for a reason that will not negatively affect your income. 

A stock that pays a good dividend but is cheap because survival of the company is in question; think Gamestop (GME) or Pitney Bowes (PBI) or even General Electric (GE) is not your target.

Is the stock cheap because upside stock price potential is less than say Chipotle?  But for you it is an opportunity because it produces dividend income and dividend income that grows.  Your first objective in this exercise of picking stocks is income not growth. 

It is all about income.  Income is dividends. Dividends come from earnings and earnings are driven by revenue growth.   Put all that together with a solid balance sheet and you can find stocks with dividends that beat that 2.5% CD.


Guideline for Picking Dividend Stocks.


  • Earnings per share, EPS must exceed dividends paid out.  Otherwise, don't take the risk
  • Dividend yield has to exceed 2 year U.S. Treasury.  Otherwise, don't take the risk
  • Dividend growth has to keep up with inflation
  • Debt to equity ratio has to be 1 or less or within industry standard.  Otherwise don't take the risk. 

Industries with low P/E stocks.


Industries with stocks that pay dividends but have low P/E price earnings ratios include:

  •  Regional and Commercial Banks, 
  • Refiners, 
  • Steel, 
  • Materials, 
  • Auto and Tires in the consumer discretionary area. 
  • Grocery stores in retail and finally 
  • Railroads.   

There are the industries I will search and these are the criteria I will measure. As I identify stocks I like and that I buy, I will write up their fundamentals and post my trade.   Here is an interesting link to a list of stocks for consideration.   https://www.theonlineinvestor.com/top_25_low_pe_ratios/

Good Income Investing

M* MoneyMadam

* Mar-a-Lago does not have a golf course.  Trump International Golf course is in West Palm Beach


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