Thursday, July 18, 2019

Bag Count - An interview with Alfred Ferol


Alfred Ferol called me, he said this is the first time in a long time nothing is going on.   What do you mean Alfred?   Well, have I heard anything from The Money Madam?  Why not? 

You are right Alfred; I am starving for ideas and have not written much lately.  I have only four call expirations this Friday.  Who can live on only four call expirations? 

Well Madam I see many cross currents in buying and selling today.  Buying and selling stocks of course, buying and selling 737 Max, buying and selling dresses and pants, buying and selling options. 

Cross currents?  The other day I saw high bag counts and indeed that is supported by the data.  (Bag counts are the number of packages shoppers carry after buying.)  Consumers are spending money.  Everywhere we go, there are construction projects.  Interest rates are consumer friendly and so is inflation. 

Is there anything negative?  Negatives?   Politics; the people we pay after we elect them are a big negative. Savings income from low interest rates is a big negative.  The unknown, unknowns are always of concern. 

Positives such as the high bag count are critical.  The most significant part of American business is a high bag count.  I would weight bag count as having a 66.5% level of significance because the consumer is 66.5% of the economy.   Everywhere we go there is a high bag count because for the last 10 years consumers didn’t have jobs.  They didn’t spend money.  Now they have jobs.  Now incomes on the entire spectrum of jobs are increasing and this leads to spending.  Is there anything Americans love to do more than to spend money? 

Will the bag count continue?  Data again are on our side.  Consumers are both spending and saving more. So, what do you suggest?  Follow unemployment trends, follow consumer trends, these are opportunities.  Of course, follow The MoneyMadam.  When these data points change, you will adjust. 

Thanks Alfred, I always enjoy your input.

M* MoneyMadam